Micron earnings set up a sharp bull-bear split

Micron Technology will report Q4 FY2026 results after the market closes on September 30, with company guidance calling for revenue of $50 billion (±$1 billion) and non-GAAP EPS of $31 (±$1). Wall Street expectations are higher, with consensus around $51.07 billion in revenue and adjusted EPS of about $31.52, while several banks forecast stronger results.

Investor attention is centered on whether demand for high-bandwidth memory can keep tightening the broader DRAM market. Samsung expects HBM to reach nearly 30% of global DRAM wafer capacity by 2027, while Dongwu Securities expects HBM capacity’s share of total DRAM capacity to rise from 12.3% in 2024 to 17.1% in 2025, 20.8% in 2026, and reach 22.5% in 2027. Micron has begun mass production and shipments of 12-layer HBM4 for NVIDIA’s Vera Rubin platform, and cumulative shipping revenue has exceeded $1 billion.

The earnings setup has exposed a wide split in views. D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria reiterated a target price of $2000, arguing tight supply and longer HBM order visibility could last at least until 2027. Michael Burry has taken the opposite side, replacing Micron shorts with put options expiring in June next year with a strike price in the $500 range, betting the memory shortage will fade as supply catches up.