Viral AI scenario pushes Europe to confront tech dependence

Europe 2031, a speculative scenario written by Brussels-based thinktankers, imagines the EU weakened by its failure to build AI infrastructure while the US and China race ahead. Published just before the Trump administration blocked “foreign nationals” from using Anthropic’s Fable model, the scenario has circulated widely during G7 discussions and reached members of the European parliament.

The scenario depicts American companies reorganising around AI, China building robots, and Europe falling into economic and political crisis as cyber-attacks, unemployment and weak compute capacity erode its position. Its creators argue that Europe needs a dramatic shift toward tech sovereignty, including faster datacentre construction and streamlined AI zones.

Sceptics note that some of the scenario’s examples of US AI dominance are already uncertain. The $100bn (£75bn) OpenAI and Nvidia deal collapsed in February, the $300bn OpenAI and Oracle agreement appears doubtful, and OpenAI has pulled out of a flagship Texas project referenced in the scenario.

European politicians are treating the piece less as a forecast than as a warning. Spanish MEP Nicolás Casares said it raises valid concerns while amplifying the alarm, especially over whether Europe benefits from hosting infrastructure controlled by OpenAI or Anthropic if access can later be restricted.