Omdia lifts 2026 chip outlook as AI strains supply

Omdia raised its 2026 semiconductor revenue forecast to 94.1% year-over-year (YoY), citing exceptional growth in DRAM and NAND as AI demand outpaces global supply. Memory ICs are expected to represent more than 50% of total semiconductor revenue in 2026, with shortages across high bandwidth memory (HBM), advanced packaging, and node capacity expected to last until at least 2027.

HBM supply remains constrained because production is more complex than standard DRAM and depends on just three suppliers able to manufacture at scale: SK Hynix, Samsung, and Micron. AI accelerators from NVIDIA, AMD, Intel, and Google require HBM stacks, while TSMC’s 2nm and 3nm nodes are largely booked by NVIDIA, AMD, Broadcom, and Apple.

Cost pressure is spreading to smartphones, PCs, consumer electronics, automotive systems, and industrial electronics as DRAM suppliers prioritize HBM and other high-margin products. Computing & Data Storage is expected to lead growth, rising by more than 150% YoY in 2026 to approach $1 trillion, driven by data center servers, memory-intensive applications, and higher memory IC pricing.

Consumer electronics and wireless applications also have a stronger outlook as smartphone price increases that began in the fourth quarter of 2025 move further into the premium tier. Apple’s iPhone 18 and iPhone Fold, and Google’s Pixel 11 Pro Fold are expected later this year, alongside gains for smart watches, wearables, video game consoles, and OLED TVs.