Computer science graduates face AI job squeeze

College graduates from majors most exposed to AI are facing weaker early-career outcomes since ChatGPT’s release in late 2022, with computer science, mathematics, statistics, some engineering disciplines, networking and journalism among the fields hit hardest. Census Bureau economists found that the most AI-exposed decile of majors saw initial employment fall by five percentage points, while full-quarter initial earnings declined by 13 percent.

Lower-paying work in restaurants and retail accounts for about half of the earnings decline, as graduates unable to land jobs in their fields move into service-sector roles. Unlike a broad recession, the damage is concentrated in majors closely tied to tasks affected by AI, while less exposed fields such as nursing and many education programs have not seen the same deterioration.

The economists said oversupply does not fully explain the pattern, noting that growth in graduates from exposed majors started to level off after ChatGPT’s release and some STEM enrollments have begun to decline. Changes in self-employment and graduate school could explain as much as half of the five-percentage-point employment decline, but the findings still point to AI-related uncertainty reshaping hiring for entry-level workers.