UK puts AI economic benefit at £120 billion, below earlier claim

The UK government’s central estimate for AI’s economic benefit by 2030 is £120 billion, AI minister Kanishka Narayan has said, with a likely range of £55 billion to £140 billion. The disclosure undercuts the £400 billion figure ministers had cited for nearly two years.

Narayan said the higher projection came from a 2023 report commissioned by Google and produced by consultancy Public First, now PF Global. Ministers had the lower estimate since at least November 2025, but government bodies, including Skills England, continued publishing the older figure months later. Narayan’s answer did not formally withdraw that claim.

PF Global attributed the gap to slower-than-expected AI adoption. Lawmakers and researchers, including Dame Chi Onwurah and the Ada Lovelace Institute, said the episode highlights the risks of hype and industry-shaped evidence influencing policymaking.