Ask HN: is the rise of AI tools going to be the next dot com bust?

The original poster set the scene at an Australian tech expo where nearly every exhibitor used ´Artificial Intelligence´ or ´agent´ language in their pitches; only two non-AI companies — makers of monitor stands — stood out for not adopting the trend. That observation prompted a simple question: is the influx of AI tools sustainable, or will there be an impending crash that leaves only the ´best and brightest´ standing?

Commenters reached for history to frame their answers. Many noted clear parallels with the dot com era: transformational technology, a surge of investment, and uncertainty about killer use cases. Some invoked specific comparisons, including the Cisco story from the internet era and the modern parallel of Nvidia, while others pointed out major differences: established, profitable platform companies exist now; winners from past cycles like amazon and microsoft emerged and dominated. Several contributors warned of a reckoning driven by underlying economics — high hardware and energy costs, large training bills, and startups burning cash on chipsets or API access. One comment flagged that core model developers are beginning to build vertically, and companies such as amazon, google, tesla and microsoft are creating their own chips to reduce dependence on vendors using proprietary stacks like cuda.

Views diverged on scale and shape. Some predicted a full bubble burst similar to 2000, with long recoveries and bankruptcies. Others expected a softer deflation: hype fading into an S curve where many firms fail and a smaller set of incumbents consolidate power. Practical concerns surfaced too: the rise of ´prompt engineer´ titles, uneven adoption, messy AI-generated code causing maintenance debt, and the risk that customers balk at rising prices as startups seek profitability. There was also the optimism that ´Artificial Intelligence´ may act as a productivity platform like the pc and office did, creating new jobs even as it destroys some roles.

In short, the thread concluded that outcomes are uncertain but probable: a major shake up is coming, many startups will not survive, and a smaller group of firms will dominate. Whether that plays out as a dramatic dot com-style implosion or a more gradual market correction remains contested; commenters mostly agreed the technology itself will persist and continue to reshape industries.